the philosophy

of induction

 

Induction is the process of testing limited samples over limited time and making assumptions about the nature of reality over all space and all time.

This is the best method we have for creating knowledge, but it is certainly not necessarily stable.

Observe the circular graphic with colored blobs in it to the left middle of this page.

Imagine that the outer white circle is the universe and the interior blue area is an area billions of light years across.

Imagine that the small white circles inside the blue area are places that future scientists test for some property X of the universe.

It is quite possible that this property X is different in the black areas and in the red, green, and yellow areas.

But, induction, by its nature, makes the assumption that property X, because it has been observed at some times and some places, will remain consistent for all times and all spaces.

This is certainly not logically necessary (because logic can not tell us anything about the state of the world at all) and it is not necessary in physical reality either.

We can also imagine that the colored blobs in the image to the left of this page represent time periods in the history of the universe.

Perhaps the blue area could represent a time span that incluces the last ten billion years and the next three billion years.

Perhaps properties of the universe could be different at different times because such a change is either built into the universe or features of the manifestation of matter, at times, could change.

Many scientists believe that the laws of physics as presently understood, were, in fact, very different during the initial moments after what is theorized as the big bang.

But, even this theory could be relying on a misinterpretation of the observed outward trajectory of parts of the universe.

Though, the theory does fit well with what we can be said to know.

Our belief that "the sun will rise tomorrow" is as justified as the belief that "God rides a purple unicorn on Venus".

There is nothing reasonable about induction and no reason takes place in inductive "reasoning".

The myth that induction is reasonable is the fatal flaw of human understanding.

It is why we never see it coming whatever it is.


 


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